History
Five years of the War-State Index – as it would have been published on each day.
- Real-time reading
- Revised series
- 90% interval
- Warning level: 0 Normal, 1 Elevated, 2 High, 3 Severe, 4 Critical
The highest reading was 36.3 (27 Dec 2024). Today the reading is 23.7.
Key events in the chart
- – Balticconnector gas pipeline and a telecom cable damaged; government suspects external activity K4
- – Surge of asylum seekers routed through Russia to south-eastern crossings; government says Russia is facilitating it H3
- – Raja-Jooseppi, the last open crossing, closed Eastern border
- – Whole land border closed again Eastern border
- – Act on temporary measures to combat instrumentalised migration enters into force Eastern border
- – C-Lion1 Finland-Germany data cable cut, with a Lithuania-Sweden cable; Yi Peng 3 suspected K4
- – Estlink 2 power link and four telecom cables damaged; Finland seizes the shadow-fleet tanker Eagle S K4
- – Elisa Helsinki-Tallinn cable damaged; Finland seizes the cargo ship Fitburg; an Arelion cable also damaged K4
By year
| Year | Mean | Highest | Days at warning level 1+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0 |
| 2022 | 11.1 | 16.5 | 66 |
| 2023 | 16.1 | 27.6 | 31 |
| 2024 | 21.3 | 36.3 | 18 |
| 2025 | 26.3 | 35.4 | 43 |
| 2026 | 26.0 | 32.9 | 18 |
Why two lines?
The solid line is the real-time reading: on each day it uses only the information that was public then. The dashed line is the revised series, which dates events to when they actually happened. The shaded area is the 90% interval, which reflects uncertainty in the model's assumptions.