Versions

v1.1.0 – 24 Oct 2026

• New event type K8, hostile interference with civil aviation outside Finnish airspace: a foreign state aircraft or vessel endangers or interferes with a civil flight in the international airspace of the Gulf of Finland or the northern Baltic (an unsafe approach, flying without a transponder near airliners, forcing evasive action). Pillar K, severity 30, half-life 30 days, cap 45. Before, such incidents stayed unclassified and did not move the reading.
• Inside Finnish airspace the same act is still K6 and an attack on the aircraft K2/K3; GPS jamming is still H4.
• For the first six months (until 24 Apr 2027) every K8 event is reviewed before publishing.
• Fintraffic (air navigation services) and the Safety Investigation Authority were added to the Tier A sources.
• The whole history was recomputed. The ledger had no K8 events, so no earlier reading changed. The sensitivity analysis's uncertainty bands were redrawn (up to 0.9 points, 0.2 on average – sampling noise). The version 1.0.0 outputs are kept.

v1.0.0 – 22 Oct 2026

• First published model: 6 pillars, 28 event types, 13 state variables, gates G1–G6, ceilings, the daily limiter and warning levels 0–4.
• Calibration run 22 Oct 2021 – 22 Oct 2026: 38 verified events and 14 state changes in the ledger.
• Sensitivity analysis with 300 draws.

The model only changes with a new version number. The whole history is then recomputed, the old outputs are kept and the change is recorded on this page.

0.1 – development version

• Public site in Finnish and English: dashboard, model description, events, history and open data.