Finland War-State Index (FWSI)
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Events

Every event that affects the index, with its sources. Events are never deleted or edited afterwards: corrections are recorded as new rows.

The event ledger is the model's actual input. Filter events by pillar, type or year. "Effect now" is the event's current signal after decay; old events have faded to zero but stay in the ledger so the history can be computed.

Showing: 38

Events
DateTypeTitleEffect nowSource
H9 Reconnaissance Defence Forces intelligence chief and Supo: Russian intelligence gathering on Finnish defence firms and garrisons could prepare sabotage 5.4 nordiskpost.com
A1 Threat of force Putin at Valdai: an attack on Kaliningrad would put the use of all Russian weapons on the agenda 7.1 aljazeera.com
A6 Nuclear signalling Russian diplomatic note warns NATO of a nuclear response if Kaliningrad is cut off 5.5 aljazeera.com
K6 Airspace or sea violation Russian aircraft suspected of violating Finnish airspace over the western Gulf of Finland 2.2 fr.euronews.com
K6 Airspace or sea violation Russian military aircraft suspected of violating Finnish airspace near Porkkala; ambassador summoned 0.1 aa.com.tr
K6 Airspace or sea violation Two stray Ukrainian drones crash near Kouvola; President Stubb: no military threat to Finland – kyivindependent.com
A2 Hostile statement Medvedev says Finland will pay for its Russophobia – pravda.com.ua
K4 Infrastructure sabotage Elisa Helsinki-Tallinn cable damaged; Finland seizes the cargo ship Fitburg; an Arelion cable also damaged 1.2 malaymail.com
K7 Unidentified drones Drone seen over Valajaskoski hydropower station in Rovaniemi; police investigating – pravda.com.ua
N1 Article 4 Estonia requests NATO Article 4 consultations after the MiG-31 violation – armyrecognition.com
K6 Airspace or sea violation Three Russian MiG-31s violate Estonian airspace for about 12 minutes – armyrecognition.com
A4 Military exercise Zapad-2025 strategic exercise in Belarus, western Russia and Kaliningrad – en.wikipedia.org
A1 Threat of force Russian MFA amplifies Medvedev: a confrontation would mean the collapse of Finnish statehood – wionews.com
N1 Article 4 Poland invokes NATO Article 4 after Russian drones enter its airspace – atalayar.com
K6 Airspace or sea violation Russian military aircraft suspected of violating Finnish airspace off Porvoo; charge d'affaires summoned – euromaidanpress.com
K6 Airspace or sea violation Two Russian military aircraft suspected of violating Finnish airspace off Porvoo; ambassador summoned – aa.com.tr
K4 Infrastructure sabotage Estlink 2 power link and four telecom cables damaged; Finland seizes the shadow-fleet tanker Eagle S – malaymail.com
K4 Infrastructure sabotage C-Lion1 Finland-Germany data cable cut, with a Lithuania-Sweden cable; Yi Peng 3 suspected – en.wikipedia.org
K6 Airspace or sea violation Suspected violation of Finnish airspace by Russian military aircraft near Loviisa – babel.ua
H4 GNSS interference Finnair suspends Helsinki-Tartu flights for a month after GPS interference – news.err.ee
A2 Hostile statement Putin says there will be problems with Finland now that it has joined NATO – edition.cnn.com
H3 Weaponised migration Arrivals resume when two crossings reopen; government closes the whole land border again – jurist.org
H3 Weaponised migration Surge of asylum seekers routed through Russia to south-eastern crossings; government says Russia is facilitating it – ey.com
K4 Infrastructure sabotage Balticconnector gas pipeline and a telecom cable damaged; government suspects external activity – axios.com
H8 Hostile diplomatic act Russia expels nine Finnish diplomats and closes the Finnish consulate general in St Petersburg – rcinet.ca
H5 Espionage Finland expels nine Russian embassy staff for intelligence activity – babel.ua
H7 Economic coercion Putin decree places Fortum's Russian assets under temporary state management – spglobal.com
A2 Hostile statement Kremlin warns of counter-measures as Finland joins NATO – tribuneindia.com
K4 Infrastructure sabotage Explosions destroy the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea – malaymail.com
A7 Mobilisation Russia announces partial mobilisation – en.wikipedia.org
K6 Airspace or sea violation Two Russian MiG-31 fighters suspected of violating Finnish airspace off Porvoo – rcinet.ca
H7 Economic coercion Gazprom halts natural gas supply to Finland after a rouble-payment dispute – upi.com
H7 Economic coercion RAO Nordic suspends electricity imports from Russia to Finland – bloomberg.com
A1 Threat of force Russian MFA: Russia will take military-technical retaliatory steps if Finland joins NATO – tass.com
K6 Airspace or sea violation Russian Mi-17 helicopter briefly violates Finnish airspace near Kitee and Rautjarvi – yle.fi
H2 Nuisance cyberattack DDoS attack takes down Finnish government websites during President Zelenskyy's address to Parliament – euronews.com
H7 Economic coercion Russia closes its airspace to Finnish airlines in retaliation for EU airspace bans – avitrader.com
A1 Threat of force Russian MFA spokesperson warns Finland and Sweden of serious military and political consequences if they join NATO – arctictoday.com

Effect now = the event's signal today (0–100), before the pillar weight and aggregation.

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