Finland War-State Index today
- Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 EEST
- Full analysis daily at 06:00
Index reading
How is the index calculated?Reading 24/ 100
Hybrid pressure
- 24 h−0.1
- 7 days−0.4
- 30 days−0.3
Summary
Finland is under hybrid pressure. This level covers things such as the closed eastern border, GNSS jamming and isolated airspace violations. They do not mean a military threat, and daily life goes on as normal. Follow official announcements and treat rumours on social media with care.
Warning level
0
Normal
No signs of rapid escalation.
About the warning levelsActive gates and tripwires
A gate sets a floor under the reading once a threshold has been crossed. A tripwire raises the warning level.
- Hybrid pressure (G6) – Eastern border crossings closed over instrumentalised migration, or weaponised migration in the last 30 days. Floor 20.
Last 90 days
Full historyWhat drives it
Strongest signals
-
7.0points
Eastern border closed; the instrumentalised migration act is in force
Finnish state posturethemoscowtimes.com -
6.0points
Daily GNSS interference
Hybrid operationstieto.traficom.fi -
5.2points
New military capacity visible near the Finnish border
Adversary posture and intentbostonglobe.com -
3.8points
Russia is at war in Europe outside the Nordic-Baltic region
Adversary posture and intenten.wikipedia.org -
3.0points
Authorities: no immediate military threat to Finland
Finnish state posturepresidentti.fi
Contribution = signal value times the pillar weight, before aggregation.
Index components
What makes up the reading?
Each pillar runs from 0 to 100. Share = value × weight.
| Pillar | Value 0–100 | Value 0–100 | Weight | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kinetic and physical attacks | Value2.8 | Weight30% | Share0.8 pts | ||
| Hybrid operations | Value31.9 | Weight20% | Share6.4 pts | ||
| Finnish state posture | Value39.9 | Weight20% | Share8.0 pts | ||
| Adversary posture and intent | Value46.7 | Weight15% | Share7.0 pts | ||
| Allied and international signals | Value15.0 | Weight10% | Share1.5 pts | ||
| Market and open-data anomalies | Value0.0 | Weight5% | Share0.0 pts | ||
Each pillar runs from 0 to 100. The headline is their weighted sum, bounded by gates and ceilings.
Pillars and signalsEditor's note
Why this site exists
The index gathers public information on Finland's security situation into one reading whose calculation and sources are open. The aim is a calm, well-founded picture of the situation – not to spread alarm.
Read the editor's noteLatest events (30 days)
All events- Defence Forces intelligence chief and Supo: Russian intelligence gathering on Finnish defence firms and garrisons could prepare sabotage
- Putin at Valdai: an attack on Kaliningrad would put the use of all Russian weapons on the agenda
- Russian diplomatic note warns NATO of a nuclear response if Kaliningrad is cut off
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