What FWSI measures
FWSI tells you in one number where Finland sits on the ladder from peace to war – and how fast the situation is moving.
What FWSI measures
The Finland War-State Index (FWSI) is a daily reading from 0 to 100. It describes how far Finland has moved along the ladder from peace to war: 0 is full peace and 100 is war on Finnish soil.
The reading is computed from events gathered from public sources (for example airspace violations, cable damage, threats) and state variables (for example the status of the eastern border, the official threat assessment, use of the Emergency Powers Act). Every event and state change is recorded in the ledger with its sources, and every calculation is documented and reproducible.
Alongside the reading FWSI gives a warning level from 0 to 4 that describes the speed of escalation. Slow, long-running pressure can keep the reading high while the warning level stays at zero; a sudden change raises the warning level before the reading itself is high.
From peace to war: eight bands
The scale is divided into eight bands. The band name says what kind of situation the reading describes.
| Reading | Band | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 0–9 | Peace | No hostile activity directed at Finland. |
| 10–19 | Tension | International tension and occasional hostile statements. |
| 20–34 | Hybrid pressure now | Hybrid pressure: border closure, GNSS jamming, isolated violations. |
| 35–49 | Hybrid campaign and coercion | A systematic hybrid campaign: sabotage, cyberattacks, coercion. |
| 50–64 | Militarised crisis | Military crisis: force concentration, extraordinary readiness measures. |
| 65–79 | Use of force | Limited use of force against Finland. |
| 80–89 | Armed conflict | Armed conflict with battle deaths. |
| 90–100 | War | War: state of defence or a large-scale invasion. |
The reading is not a probability. A reading of 24 does not mean a 24 percent chance of war; it means Finland is under hybrid pressure without a military threat. The reading is ordinal: a higher number means a more serious situation.
The model is built to be cautious. Without use of force or Finland's own emergency measures the reading cannot rise above 49, however many statements and violations pile up.
Warning level 0–4
The warning level measures the speed of change and individual warning signs (tripwires). It also sets how often the full analysis runs. The level always steps down one level at a time, and only after the situation has stayed calmer for several days.
| Warning level | What it means | Run cadence |
|---|---|---|
| 0 Normal | No signs of rapid escalation. | full analysis daily at 06:00 |
| 1 Elevated | The reading has risen or a single warning sign is active. | full analysis at 06:00 and 18:00 |
| 2 High | Clear escalation or a serious warning sign. | full analysis every 6 hours |
| 3 Severe | Rapid escalation or extraordinary Finnish readiness measures. | analysis every hour |
| 4 Critical | Use of force against Finland, or war. | analysis every 15 minutes with rapid alerts |
What FWSI is not
- Not an official warning. In an emergency call 112 and follow the authorities' instructions.
- Not a forecast. The reading describes today. The 7-day outlook for Premium subscribers is an estimate, not a prediction.
- Not intelligence. The model uses public sources only.
- Not an AI opinion. AI sorts sources into a closed codebook; the number is computed by a published, deterministic model.
- Not a political statement. The model's weights were fixed in advance and not fitted to historical events.