Pillars and signals

The reading is built from six pillars. Each pillar combines a set of event types and state variables.

Every number on this page comes straight from the model's configuration file (model v1.1.0). They are never changed without a new model version, a full recompute of the history and an entry in the version history.

Six pillars

Pillar	Weight	Today	What it covers
K Kinetic and physical attacks	30%	2.8	Armed attacks, sabotage, violations of airspace and territorial waters, and drones.
H Hybrid operations	20%	31.9	Cyberattacks, weaponised migration, GNSS interference, espionage and coercion.
F Finnish state posture	20%	39.9	Emergency legislation, the official threat assessment, defence readiness, the eastern border, civil defence and requests to allies.
A Adversary posture and intent	15%	46.7	Russian statements and threats, exercises, forces near Finland and mobilisation.
N Allied and international signals	10%	15.0	NATO measures, allied warnings, travel advisories, embassies and commercial traffic.
M Market and open-data anomalies	5%	0.0	Government bond spreads and anomalies in GDELT event data.

29 event types

Each event type has a severity (0–100), a half-life (how quickly its effect fades) and a cap (how high events of the same type can push that type together). The cap stops, for example, ten minor violations from weighing as much as one armed attack.

K · Kinetic and physical attacks

Code	Event type	Severity	Half-life	Cap
K1	Invasion or large-scale offensive against Finland	100	365 days	100
K2	Limited armed attack: strike, shelling, attack on forces or state vessels	85	120 days	95
K3	Armed clash, shoot-down, seizure of a state vessel	70	90 days	85
K4	Sabotage of critical infrastructure, deliberate or suspected	55	60 days	70
K5	Violent proxy attack or plot on Finnish soil	45	45 days	60
K6	Violation of airspace or territorial waters by state aircraft, vessels or military drones	25	21 days	40
K7	Unidentified drones over critical or military sites	15	14 days	30
K8	Hostile interference with civil aviation outside Finnish airspace	30	30 days	45

H · Hybrid operations

Code	Event type	Severity	Half-life	Cap
H1	Disruptive cyberattack on critical or government services	40	30 days	55
H2	Nuisance cyber campaign: DDoS, defacement	12	7 days	25
H3	Weaponised migration surge at the border	35	30 days	50
H4	GNSS jamming or spoofing incident with operational impact	15	14 days	30
H5	Espionage case: arrests, expulsions, disclosed operations	12	30 days	25
H6	Influence operation identified by authorities	10	21 days	25
H7	Economic or energy coercion aimed at Finland	20	60 days	35
H8	Hostile diplomatic act: expulsions, consulate closures, border claims	12	30 days	25
H9	Reconnaissance of infrastructure or military sites, shadow-fleet loitering	10	21 days	20

F · Finnish state posture

Code	Event type	Severity	Half-life	Cap

A · Adversary posture and intent

Code	Event type	Severity	Half-life	Cap
A1	Explicit threat of force against Finland	30	30 days	50
A2	Hostile statement without a threat of force	12	14 days	25
A3	Ultimatum, formal demands or territorial claim	65	90 days	80
A4	Large military exercise near Finland	15	14 days	30
A5	Snap combat-readiness inspection near Finland	30	21 days	45
A6	Nuclear signalling relevant to Finland	30	30 days	45
A7	Mobilisation in Russia	30	90 days	60
A8	Russian mission leaves Finland or tells its citizens to leave	60	30 days	75
A9	Pretext narrative: alleged Finnish provocation, attack or persecution	35	30 days	50

N · Allied and international signals

Code	Event type	Severity	Half-life	Cap
N1	Regional ally invokes NATO Article 4	50	30 days	35
N2	Allied public warning of a specific threat to Finland	25	30 days	40
N3	Foreign embassies in Helsinki draw down staff	60	30 days	75

13 state variables

State variables describe lasting conditions that do not fade over time: they hold until an official change is recorded. The current level is highlighted.

Emergency legislation F_LEGAL · F

Level	Score
Emergency powers are not in use now	0
Emergency conditions declared over hybrid influence; emergency powers in use	45
Emergency conditions declared over the threat of an armed attack	60
Emergency conditions declared over an armed attack on Finland	85
State of defence in force	95
Decision on war taken with Parliament's consent	100

Official threat assessment F_THREAT · F

Level	Score
Authorities: no threat to Finland	5
Authorities: no immediate military threat to Finland now	15
Authorities: the threat to Finland has increased	30
Authorities: a military threat to Finland exists	60
Authorities: an attack on Finland is under way	100

Defence readiness F_READINESS · F

Level	Score
Defence Forces at normal readiness now	0
Defence Forces have publicly raised readiness	25
Reservists called up for extraordinary service	60
Partial mobilisation	80
General mobilisation	100

Eastern border F_BORDER · F

Level	Score
Eastern border open	0
Eastern border crossings restricted for security reasons	15
Some eastern border crossings closed over instrumentalised migration	25
Eastern border closed over instrumentalised migration	30
Eastern border closed; the instrumentalised migration act is in force now	35
The eastern border is under military defence	60
Fighting on the eastern border	100

Civil defence F_CIVIL · F

Level	Score
No threat-specific civil defence instructions now	0
Authorities have issued threat-specific advice to the public	30
Civil defence shelters ordered ready	60
Air-raid warnings issued	90

Requests to allies F_ALLIANCE · F

Level	Score
Finland has not requested consultations or assistance from allies now	0
Finland has requested NATO Article 4 consultations	60
Finland has invoked NATO Article 5 or the EU mutual assistance clause	90

Russian forces near Finland A_POSTURE · A

Level	Score
Russian forces near Finland are depleted	10
Russian forces near Finland at a normal level	15
Russia has announced a force build-up near Finland	25
New military capacity visible near the Finnish border now	35
Troops moved closer to the Finnish border	45
Offensive force concentration at the Finnish border	75
Russian forces crossing the Finnish border	100

Russia's war in Europe A_WAR_EUROPE · A

Level	Score
Russia is not at war with a European state	0
Russia is at war in Europe outside the Nordic-Baltic region now	25
Russia is at war in the Nordic-Baltic region	60

GNSS interference H_GNSS · H

Level	Score
No GNSS interference	0
Occasional GNSS interference	10
Weekly GNSS interference	20
Daily GNSS interference now	30
Severe GNSS interference: airport operations disrupted	40

Cyber weather H_CYBER · H

Level	Score
Cyber weather calm now	0
Cyber weather worrying	10
Cyber weather serious	20

NATO posture in the region N_NATO · N

Level	Score
NATO posture in the region at baseline	0
NATO enhanced vigilance mission under way in the region now	15
NATO reinforcing the region because of a threat	45
NATO has invoked Article 5 to defend Finland	90

Travel advisories N_TRAVEL · N

Level	Score
No unusual travel advisories for Finland now	0
Travel advisories urge caution near the Russian border	10
Allies advise reconsidering travel to Finland	40
Allies advise leaving Finland or not travelling	80

Commercial signals N_COMMERCIAL · N

Level	Score
Commercial traffic to Finland normal now	0
Airlines have suspended routes to Finland	15
War-risk insurance premiums apply to Finnish ports	30
Finnish waters listed as a war-risk area (JWC)	60

Market and data anomalies (M)

The M pillar follows two time series as deviations from their own history (z-scores). It uses the previous day's data, and missing data counts as "no anomaly". The pillar's weight is small because markets also react to many other things.

Component	Points per z	Cap
M_SPREAD – Finland's 10-year bond spread over Germany relative to the Netherlands and Austria (250 trading days).	15	60
M_GDELT – The 7-day count of Russia–Finland conflict events in the GDELT database (365 days).	12	60