Events › E037

Putin at Valdai: an attack on Kaliningrad would put the use of all Russian weapons on the agenda

A presidential-level threat aimed at the region.

ID	E037
Type	A1 Explicit threat of force against Finland
Pillar	A · Adversary posture and intent
Event date	1 Oct 2026
Publicly known	1 Oct 2026, 12:00 EEST
Attribution	Officially attributed
Target	Regional
Magnitude	Significant
Speaker	President
Starting value	12.0
Half-life	30 days
Signal on 24 Oct 2026	7.1

Starting value = the type's severity multiplied by the attribution, target, magnitude and speaker factors. How it is calculated

Sources

The source tier says what the source can prove. Sources

This event has not been revised.