Events › E038

Defence Forces intelligence chief and Supo: Russian intelligence gathering on Finnish defence firms and garrisons could prepare sabotage

The same authorities judged a direct military attack unlikely in the near future.

ID	E038
Type	H9 Reconnaissance of infrastructure or military sites, shadow-fleet loitering
Pillar	H · Hybrid operations
Event date	5 Oct 2026
Publicly known	5 Oct 2026, 12:00 EEST
Attribution	Officially attributed
Target	Finland
Magnitude	Significant
Starting value	10.0
Half-life	21 days
Signal on 24 Oct 2026	5.4

Starting value = the type's severity multiplied by the attribution, target, magnitude and speaker factors. How it is calculated

Sources

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This event has not been revised.

Both judged a direct military attack unlikely in the immediate future